Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 10.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 5.6 receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.6%) versus WRs this year (70.6%).
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this year (72.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.0%).
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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