Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 30, 2024 8:16 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 9.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With an extraordinary 27.4% Target% (94th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 75.1% to 82.7%.
With a remarkable 9.8 adjusted yards per target (83rd percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands among the top WRs in the NFL in football.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.2 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league.
After accumulating 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big decrease this year, currently pacing 68.0 per game.