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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 68.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.4 targets.

With a remarkable 26.7% Target Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in the league.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 75.1% to 83.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.6% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

After totaling 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has gotten worse this year, currently boasting 61.0 per game.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 73.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 98.0 rate.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this year, compiling just 3.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.55 mark last year.

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