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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-106/-129).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 70.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 68.5 @ -129.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 9.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.4% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 75.1% to 84.4%.Amon-Ra St. Brown comes in as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a remarkable 9.90 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.After accruing 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has undergone a big decline this year, currently sitting at 62.0 per game.
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