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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 73.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 72.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.In this week's contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 9.6 targets.Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 28.3% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile among WRs.Amon-Ra St. Brown's 81.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a remarkable improvement in his receiving talent over last year's 75.1% figure.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.After accruing 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has produced significantly fewer this year, currently averaging 55.0 per game.Amon-Ra St. Brown's 66.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a noteable reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season's 98.0 mark.
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