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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 9.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 28.0% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 75.1% to 80.9%.

The Houston Texans pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (just 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.

After averaging 76.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has regressed heavily this year, now pacing 59.0 per game.

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