Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 74.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.3 targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 29.4% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
After averaging 65.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has made big progress this season, now pacing 72.0 per game.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Lions offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.64 seconds per snap.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) to WRs this year.
The Ravens pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus WRs this year, conceding 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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