Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 71.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 27.5% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched quite a few more air yards this year (73.0 per game) than he did last year (65.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 53.9% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.44 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

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