Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 75.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 9.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
When talking about air yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown grades out in the towering 81st percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating a colossal 68.0 per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 79.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.