Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 72.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 74.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 9.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 30.4% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up many more air yards this year (81.0 per game) than he did last year (65.0 per game).

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

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