Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 82.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.8 targets.
With an extraordinary 31.5% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL.
After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown good development this year, now averaging 82.0 per game.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.4 per game) this year.
The Packers defense has conceded the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 134.0) to wideouts this year.
This year, the imposing Packers pass defense has yielded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a puny 3.4 YAC.

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