Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 87.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 86.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 87.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 10.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
With a high 31.1% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands as one of the wideouts with the most usage in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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