Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 10.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging a stellar 57.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, totaling 8.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.24 mark last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (83.0%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).

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