Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 56.0 yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (64.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.0%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 71.9%.

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