Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 68.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 9.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this season (30.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled many more air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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