Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 71.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (31.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (70.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets defense has given up the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 121.0) to wide receivers this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).
The New York Jets pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, giving up 7.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in football.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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