Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 88.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 88.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 11.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been much more involved in his team's pass game this season (33.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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