Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-102/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 76.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 11.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this season (33.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued many more air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 78.7% to 75.7%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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