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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 77.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 11.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 74.4%.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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