Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (30.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.2% in games he has played).
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 48.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 72.5%.

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