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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 71.2%.

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (60.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (60.2%).

The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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