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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-272).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -228 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -272.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 60.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 49.1.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.42 per game.

The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (26.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.7% in games he has played).

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 69.6%.

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (59.7%) versus WRs this year (59.7%).

More Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

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