Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +142 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (29.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 69.9%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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