Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-177).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (70.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 68.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 49.1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching an impressive 77.9% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).
The New York Jets defense has given up the 7th-least passing TDs in the league to wide receivers: 0.77 per game this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.