Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has notched far more air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.