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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-232).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -232.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (27.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.9% in games he has played).

Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated far more air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 74.4%.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

More Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

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