Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-232).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -232.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (27.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.9% in games he has played).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated far more air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 74.4%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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