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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+201/-302).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -249 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -302.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has garnered a colossal 22.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 49.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 79th percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 5th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.71 per game since the start of last season.

The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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