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Amari Rodgers

Amari Rodgers Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Amari Rodgers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+401/-858).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +411 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +401.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Amari Rodgers to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).

Amari Rodgers has posted many more air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (3.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.

Amari Rodgers's 9.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the league: 19th percentile for wideouts.

The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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