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Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Amari Cooper Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has surrendered a whopping 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 7th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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