Amari Cooper Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Amari Cooper

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Amari Cooper Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+163/-230).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (28.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
Amari Cooper has accrued a colossal 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Amari Cooper's 51.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 84th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.