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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 43.0% run rate.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the projections to run 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most among all teams this week.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to earn 13.9 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Alvin Kamara has grinded out 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (82nd percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his offense's ground game in this game (48.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.8% in games he has played).

Alvin Kamara checks in as one of the worst running backs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.23 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 10th percentile.

Opposing squads have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 108.0 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

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