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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints as the 6th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.62 seconds per play.

In this week's contest, Alvin Kamara is expected by the projections to position himself in the 100th percentile among running backs with 20.7 rush attempts.

Alvin Kamara has been a much bigger part of his offense's ground game this season (68.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (53.6%).

Alvin Kamara has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (81.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints will be rolling out backup quarterback Spencer Rattler in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Alvin Kamara rates as one of the bottom RBs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.32 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 15th percentile.

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