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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused team in football (44.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Saints.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 19.4 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

After taking on 53.6% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Alvin Kamara has had a larger role in the running game this year, now making up 67.9%.

Alvin Kamara has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (95.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With an awful rate of 2.26 yards after contact (17th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara ranks among the least efficient RBs in the league.

The Chiefs defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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