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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 77.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 44.5% run rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 15.5 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.

Alvin Kamara has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).

The opposing side have run for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (133 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Haener in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Saints being a huge -7.5-point underdog this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

While Alvin Kamara has been responsible for 65.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in New Orleans's run game in this contest at 52.3%.

Alvin Kamara profiles as one of the weakest running backs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.78 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 21st percentile.

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