Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are expected by the projections to run 67.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 66.4 plays per game.
In this contest, Alvin Kamara is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.5 carries.
Alvin Kamara has received 64.9% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has grinded out 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football when it comes to RBs (88th percentile).

Favors Under

The model projects the Saints to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
Alvin Kamara grades out as one of the weakest RBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.23 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 14th percentile.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Indianapolis's unit has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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