Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Saints have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to garner 16.5 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
After accounting for 55.7% of his offense's carries last season, Alvin Kamara has been more involved in the run game this season, currently making up 65.8%.
With an excellent rate of 59.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (86th percentile), Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the top pure rushers in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to run on 37.3% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This year, the porous Houston Texans run defense has yielded a massive 3.80 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing squads: the 24th-highest rate in the NFL.

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