Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Alvin Kamara to notch 15.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Out of all RBs, Alvin Kamara ranks in the 93rd percentile for rush attempts since the start of last season, making up 55.9% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.
Alvin Kamara has picked up 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (84th percentile).

Favors Under

The Saints have been the 8th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.6% run rate.
Alvin Kamara's ground efficiency (3.93 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (22nd percentile among running backs).
With an awful tally of 2.73 yards after contact (21st percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara rates as one of the least effective RBs in the league.
The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 100 per game) versus the Patriots defense this year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New England's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, profiling as the best in football.

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