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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-137/+106).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ +106.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.Among all running backs, Alvin Kamara ranks in the 89th percentile for carries this year, making up 56.3% of the workload in his team's running game.With a remarkable record of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Alvin Kamara stands as one of the top RBs in football this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.The predictive model expects the Saints as the 4th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.Opposing squads have run for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 90.0 per game) against the Lions defense this year.The Detroit defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
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