Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to earn 14.1 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Alvin Kamara has earned 56.5% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
With an outstanding rate of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Alvin Kamara stands as one of the best running backs in football this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Saints as the 7th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With an atrocious rate of 2.32 yards after contact (5th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands among the easiest-to-tackle running backs in the NFL.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's DT corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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