Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to call the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a whopping 64.7 per game on average).
Among all RBs, Alvin Kamara grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 56.1% of the workload in his team's run game.
Alvin Kamara has grinded out 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (87th percentile).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
Alvin Kamara checks in as one of the worst running backs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.25 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 5th percentile.
This year, the weak Minnesota Vikings run defense has yielded a whopping 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 27th-worst rate in football.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Minnesota's DT corps has been excellent this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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