Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 16.1 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has received 57.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been among the bottom running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.55 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 16th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year with their run defense.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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