Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 65.3% of his offense's carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has picked up 64.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
Alvin Kamara's ground effectiveness (3.62 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (13th percentile among running backs).
The Carolina Panthers defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.30 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.