Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-most run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has garnered 57.0% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Alvin Kamara's ground effectiveness (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (8th percentile among running backs).
Alvin Kamara has been among the worst RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 8th percentile.

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