Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 17.1 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 57.6% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 5.39 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (52.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
Alvin Kamara's running efficiency (3.79 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (12th percentile among RBs).

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