Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-102/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 13.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 57.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has run for many fewer yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Alvin Kamara's ground efficiency (3.93 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (21st percentile among running backs).

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