Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (+111/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 17.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has received 59.1% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Alvin Kamara's running effectiveness (4.00 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among running backs).

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