Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-127/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to garner 16.0 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has picked up 67.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (96th percentile).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.9% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Alvin Kamara's rushing efficiency (3.62 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (15th percentile among RBs).

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