Alvin Kamara Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+171/-245).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (48.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (68.8% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in football among RBs (1st percentile).
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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