Alvin Kamara Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-314).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 43.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.
Alvin Kamara has been given 69.2% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing teams have run for the least touchdowns in the NFL (0.20 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.