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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.25 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.4% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his team's running game near the goal line this week (55.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (69.5% in games he has played).

The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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